Tag: portfolio strategy

Jake · Apr 9, 2026 8:59 pm

Stock markets were stable to up today, trying to digest the news from the Middle East. It’s my opinion that we are facing many years of instability in the Middle East and elsewhere. The United States has failed to play to win again, even with Trump at the helm.

I don’t care about the politics, but the current reality on the ground shakes my fundamental belief in the US economy. What we see in the news is a lot of “micro” reporting, very little in the way of looking at the long game and how this is going to play out over the years to come.

I cannot imagine what the Taiwanese are thinking right now, how all this will play out for them vis-à-vis the Chinese. I don’t think it looks good. If one were to incorporate this kind of thinking into their investments, how would one adjust one’s portfolio to this “new reality”?

To find a defensive strategy here for someone in my position (74 years old and looking at not so many years to go), there aren’t a lot of good options. Stocks, perhaps. And then I add in my uncertainty around the US Estate Tax if I’m outside of Canada, and my investment options become even more restricted. There is always the option of simply putting my cash into short-term vehicles like treasury bills and treasury bonds. The Investment professionals seem to feel that it is folly.

Not that they offer any viable alternatives. What I do believe is that investors probably don’t rigorously try to determine what their financial needs will be in the future. If you save for retirement, should you not get to a point where you have a target rate of return? Do I need 10% compunded every year to live? This requires some thorough analysis and an honest look at how you can live given what you have got. It’s a simple spreadsheet that most can do with little effort. Analyzing what comes in versus what goes out. Building in a rate of return and your taxes, and voila! Be honest with yourself while looking at what you have versus what you need. Make your lifestyle fit your cash flow.

As I get older, I find I need less, want less and can easily spend less. I don’t have the energy or desire to travel. I don’t spend much as I don’t go out much. I’m too exhausted.

Get real. Have a reasonable plan and move forward.

close up shot of a yellow alarm clock on a purple surface
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#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 8, 2026 7:34 am

Stock markets look to open very strongly today after the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran. It looks like it will be quite a positive day for the markets. In my opinion, nothing has been resolved with Iran, and it’s difficult to know where markets will go.

In terms of long-term strategy, my question is: what has all this accomplished, and is it just a break in the action? I don’t know. But I have several objectives to achieve that have been imposed on me as a result of my attempt to emigrate from Canada. None of which I have dealt with because of the stickiness of taking long-term decisions with what I believe to be incomplete information.

I continue to resist creating an investment policy statement to guide me through this. And I am suffering severe indecisiveness.

#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 7, 2026 8:53 am

Markets opened yesterday with a pretty much wait-and-see attitude to the goings on in the Middle East. For the time being, the markets seem to have shrugged off the increase in oil prices. The IMF has issued a warning about inflation and slowing global economic growth. I never see anyone back-check these guys to see if any of their forecasts ever pan out. I won’t bother doing so as it’s a waste of time.

I continue to struggle with implementing a plan for my portfolio to allow me to emigrate from Canada. I hit one roadblock after another. I ran into an issue with U.S. estate taxes. Yes, US estate taxes. It seems that whatever you do, there is some US rule or regulation that can affect you, no matter where you live. I fail to understand how this is possible, but most countries have given in to the extra-territorial application of US law. Something countries used to resist in the past, but here we are.

“Canadians with US situs assets (real estate, US stocks) exceeding USD$60,000 and a worldwide estate over USD$15M (2026) may face U.S. estate taxes. Scotia Wealth Management notes that while treaty exemptions offer relief, Filing Form 706-NA is required if U.S. assets exceed $60K. Proper planning is vital due to graduated rates up to 40%.”

My understanding is that to claim the exemption under the US-Canada Tax Treaty, you need to file the form. I don’t give tax advice, but I will check out what the implications are for me. Yet another thing to wreck your retirement planning that no one tells you about. Especially for those Canadians who would like to emigrate. It never stops. As long as I have an RRSP or RRIF, I will be unsure about everything and anything, it seems. With a never-ending host of issues/problems to address.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment strategy#leaving Canada#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 2, 2026 4:25 pm

Stock markets today were all over the place. I have been refraining from selling to raise cash to restructure my portfolio. It’s a little hard to time it perfectly. I should probably sell into the strong days, but I didn’t pull the trigger today. And a three-day weekend is a long time with what’s going on in the Middle East. Again, lack of strategy. I want to restructure, but I don’t have a plan. It’s always the same story: think, plan, do.

#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 2, 2026 9:35 am

The stock markets continue to reflect uncertainty over the Middle East. What I have noticed is the considerable decline in the share prices of many of the Magnificent 7. The market seems to have rotated out of the tech sector in a rather significant way. Share prices are down 20-25% from the most recent highs.

What I have noticed in my own behaviour is a lack of conviction in the strategy that I have tried to implement. My portfolio continues to display considerable volatility. I get excited and hang on when the market moves up, and become concerned when it moves down. I want to reduce my exposure to stocks, but do nothing to implement the strategy. It’s the same old story, a deer locked in the headlights, and I can’t move.

Fortunately, a couple of months ago, I lightened up on a lot of the stocks that have taken quite a nosedive. But I still have several stocks that are not consistent with my developing desire to mitigate the risk in my portfolio.

The takeaway from all this is simple. I have failed over the years to develop an investment strategy, so I am like a cork tossed in the waves. Because of my personal issues, I fail to do what I need to do. It’s always the same story: you cannot succeed if you are not prepared to act. Anxiety and a lack of self-confidence lead to dysfunctional decision-making.

In addition, not adjusting your investment strategy to your stage of life will cause anxiety, distress and a failure to make critical decisions.

#behavioural finance#investing#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 26, 2026 5:39 pm

The last couple of days have been a bit of up and down, and sideways. Tech stocks have gotten hit. Names such as Meta and Google have seen erosion in their stock prices. I noticed a rather steep decline in the Taiwan Semiconductor share price. Not surprising, so. I am going to do a post on Investment Advisors and their various responsibility to their clients, or the lack thereof.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment strategy#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 24, 2026 8:57 am

Yesterday’s stock market bounce may very well be a “dead cat” bounce. In other words, just a pause in the action. The market today looks a little bit soft, but it was nice to see some return to a level of optimism. Perhaps this was misplaced, but that’s the way the market operates.

The point I would like to raise is how this affected my behaviour. What I mean is this. I went from pessimism (woe is me, why didn’t I buy the index and some safer ETFs) to why can’t I buy more stocks or gold. It’s the same old story, trying to time the market.

This kind of behaviour is a type of mental “whiplash”. It shows a lack of conviction in my principles, which are poorly defined. Again, this leads back to a well-developed Investment Policy Statement. Always back to first principles. And getting away from that in whatever I do is dangerous.

The Investment Policy Statement is the basic document that will allow me to keep my focus and avoid bouncing all over the place. Today, I will spend the day developing, refining, and concluding it.

#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 23, 2026 7:56 am

Monday morning, waiting for markets to open. Today I decided that I won’t be looking at the goings on. It’s not productive and not useful, as I won’t sell into the pending chaotic days ahead. That doesn’t mean I won’t fret. However, I have noticed that although the markets are down from the highs, individual stocks have fared much worse. It just reinforces my next steps to reduce the volatility of my portfolio. I look at some of my old posts, and I didn’t take my own advice. Sorry state of affairs.

#behavioural finance#investing#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 7:45 pm

I am currently residing in Canada. I have lived here, except for a few short breaks, for over 65 years. I must say that as the years go by, I become increasingly disillusioned with Canada. I’m not sure what the attraction is for immigrants (other than they can’t get into the United States). Nosebleed prices for everything, incredibly high taxes with a government that is never satisfied with its “take”. It’s never enough.

During the last few years, there have been a lot of winners in the stock market, AI, and metals. The manufacturing sector is nonexistent. Governments have stifled the growth of the natural resource sector. Canadians are pretty much asleep, living off I don’t know what.

One of the main drivers of the Canadian economy is the real estate sector. Now that’s in crisis, and there is not much else out there. Maybe some tech will save the country, but ride a subway in Toronto at 2 PM in the afternoon and you will see the Canadian work ethic.

Today, Canadian stock markets took a huge dive. You would think that a resource-rich country like Canada would benefit from the turmoil in the Middle East. No. A more massive drop than New York.

Canadian stock market returns look good over the last five years. It’s because of the last couple of years. For decades, Canada was dead money. I believe that inevitably it will revert to that.

There are some good utility stocks, pipelines and maybe some tech. The rest is a real stinker. Look before you leap, and if you’re outside Canada, remember the currency risk that you are taking on board. Canada has not been a great place to put your money.

#investing#investing in Canada#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 11:24 am

Stock markets opened with a whimper today. It appears that markets are still feeling the pressure of the Middle East conflict. Gold prices continue to fall. I suspect there was a lot of profit-taking going on after the pretty fast run-up in the price. It would seem that gold continues to have a place in long-term portfolios, but no one is talking about gold now. Buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying if you are interested in accumulating a position.

Gold shows you how volatile things can get. It dropped $1,000 an ounce in a pretty short period of time. There are no safe havens anymore, just pain or less pain.

Once again, I am displaying a trading mentality. Looking for the short-term profits. But I must always remind myself that I have maybe 10-15 years left to go. I cannot withstand long-term drawdown periods. So, keeping that in mind would seem to indicate that gold does not fit.

Long-term Canadian stocks worry me, so I look to utilities that have stable revenues and growing dividends.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 8:25 am

Holding individual stocks has its risks and benefits. A while ago, I bought FedEx shares. They were down in the dumps as they were restructuring the company and going through some changes in their relationship with Amazon. The stock took a nosedive after I bought it, and I added to the position. Since that time, the stock has doubled in a matter of months.

In looking to restructure my portfolio, it was one of the stocks I sold. This morning, the stock’s pre-market is up 6%.

There are a couple of points to note here. First, these things happen. At the same time, I sold my position in Microsoft, which subsequently took an epic dump in share price. You win some, you lose some.

More importantly, what I have gotten into is speculating, not investing. Buying individual stocks can get you there pretty easily. For about a 10-year period, I was disciplined enough not to play this game. But as the market continued to climb, I got into it. It can be exhausting. But more importantly, you end up taking your eye off the ball. You lose sight of your overall investment objectives and start trading your book if you are like me.

Benjamin Graham defined investing as an operation based on thorough analysis, promising safety of principal and an adequate return, while all other operations are speculative. Investors focus on intrinsic business value, whereas speculators bet on price movements driven by market sentiment.

Key Principles from The Intelligent Investor:

Definition: Investment relies on analysis; speculation relies on hope and market timing.

Attitude: The investor acts as a business owner; the speculator acts as a player trying to outguess market fluctuations.

Risk: Speculation becomes dangerous when it is treated as investing. Graham advised limiting speculative, or “mad,” money to a small percentage of a portfolio (e.g., 10%).

The Goal: Investing prioritizes protecting capital, while speculation prioritizes quick gains.

Key Takeaways:

Know the difference: Graham argued that both can be “intelligent” only if one understands which role they are playing.

Avoid “Unintelligent” Speculation: This includes speculating when you think you are investing, treating it as a serious business when lacking skills, and risking more than you can afford.

Market Sentiment: The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.

Good advice in the face of the madness we are seeing now. Every time you click on CNBC or another website, remember this. When you look at your individual stocks and want to trade them, remember this. Be prudent, take profits. Keep your eyes open as to what is going on around you. Develop your investment policy statement and stay focused.

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#investing#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy#trading stocks
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 7:48 am

As a general matter, building your wealth requires vigilance. Even when you get the assistance of a financial advisor, you need to keep an eye on what’s going on. Relying totally on someone else to manage your wealth is, one might say, a little risky.

I paid lip service to creating an investment policy statement. It seems unnecessary. It’s not. It provides an overall framework for your future investments. It prompts you to consider where you will allocate your money and how your investment goals will change over time. It’s a mistake not to take it seriously, as I did.

There are many online resources available for crafting an investment policy statement. Do it! Don’t consider it as another unnecessary step. Don’t outsource this as well. Make sure it gets done, and that you are the originator of the document, not just filling in the blanks.

This is a short post. But I cannot overemphasize how important it is to go through the process, even if you are managing your own investments.

hard cash on a briefcase
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#investing#investing philosophy#investment policy statements#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 19, 2026 5:10 pm

The markets closed today without doing any more significant damage to my money. I’m not sure whether the buying has come back, but for now it seems to have settled down, waiting presumably for some news from the Middle East. Canadian oil and gas stocks moved up in what is likely a dead cat bounce. I don’t believe that Trump is in a very strong position to allow long-term damage to the global oil supply with the mid-term elections coming up.

I get the feeling that this war with Iran will be yet another episode of unfinished business. This in turn, will inevitably bring more volatility to the markets in days and maybe years to come.

Canadian stock markets were down today, except for oil and gas. Canada is, in my opinion, a mess. And the outsized gains over the last two years have been the result of an upswing in base and precious metals. This was driven by the crazy AI stuff, which seems to have suddenly disappeared! No one is talking AI!

In closing off for today, there are a couple of points that I need to get into my head. As a 74-year-old man, I need to concern myself with capital preservation. I need to get the volatility out of my portfolio!

#AI stocks#investing#investing philosophy#investment accounts Canada#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 19, 2026 10:58 am

The markets opened weak again today. The excuse or rationale was short-term oil prices. Yet again, the short-term and program traders are in action, tanking the market. It has now become the wild west. For simple investors such as myself, it’s difficult to distance ourselves from the noise. There is so much material on the internet, much of which is disinformation or misinformation. Unfortunately, it seems that everyone is an expert now, as they have a megaphone readily available to them. I just don’t understand how they all manage to support themselves. The most important thing to do in times of market turmoil is to turn it off.

The sad reality is that the action in the Middle East will not come to any decisive conclusion. And we will all have to live with the ambiguity that it creates. There will, in my opinion, be no short-term pain for long-term gain. It will just continue to be like a dull toothache.

As for me, when the dust settles, I will look to take the volatility out of my portfolio. I don’t like these 20% drops in stock prices in a two month period. I don’t know what’s going on in the background, but things seem to be wildly out of control. Time to reflect on my investment objectives and realign myself to face the reeality of my mortality. Hope is not a strategy.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 19, 2026 6:40 am

Here I am on Thursday morning. Stock markets have continued to plummet over the last couple of days in the face of developments in the Middle East. A friend of mine called, telling me that his wife was in a panic as a result of the steep market decline on Wednesday. I felt the pain as well. I reminded him that the stock market is an elevator, with its ups and downs. I find myself feeling nervous facing the volatility as well. I never learn. A couple of months back, I was going to shift my portfolio from individual stocks to ETFs. I did about half the job and sold mostly the wrong stocks.

Fortunately, I maintained an over-the-top cash reserve, which is a buffer to the market decline. It could have been much worse. When I look at some of the bond ETFs, which are marketed as a tool for stabilizing portfolios, these too have declined, but by a smaller margin.

I am very concerned about the long-term impact of all this on oil prices. It’s funny how, in some twisted way, the environmentalists were right. Pushing towards non-fossil fuels for national security reasons, however, rather than for the environment. It’s funny how things work out.

What’s Next?

I have no idea what will happen. But I do know this. As I get older and my time horizon for investing gets shorter and shorter, I have failed to reduce the volatility embedded in my portfolio. This is another way of saying I should prioritize capital preservation over growth.

The last twenty years of market growth have lulled investors into a false sense of security, leading them to believe that, over time, markets always go up and recover quickly from setbacks. This was not always the case, and it’s not logical to conclude that this will always be the case.

The wet-behind-the-ears crowd wants us to believe that things have changed. That AI and all the other “tools” will boost everything into the stratosphere. But people haven’t changed one bit. Greed and fear are still the primary motivations.

Look at the stock of Elbit Systems. An Israeli military technology company making stuff for war. It trades at a P/E ratio of almost 100. That’s a lot of war. Have investors lost their minds?

Enough said.

#investing#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy