Tag: investments

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Sometimes it’s hard to give up old habits. I’ve tried my hand at stockpicking for a long time. What I did not learn is that you should sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling. In April 2025, I should have been loading up. Instead, I was selling. The corollary of that is now I should be lightening up, but for many reasons, I can’t be out of the market. So as I mentioned before, looking at ETFs. For the most part, the ones I’m looking at did a lot better over the last few years than I did.

I didn’t trust my instincts. Sold too early into falling markets. Didn’t learn a darn thing in 50 years.

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Looking around at common stocks using the old p/e ratio as the valuation metric, things look pretty scary. Most of the growth of large-cap companies has been fueled by an increase in p/e ratios. I have been watching CAT (Caterpillar), the stock for which has doubled in the last twelve months or so. The p/e ratio has more than doubled. This represents the anticipation of growth, not necessarily the actual growth that is taking place.

Much of this is driven by the never-ending thirst for AI and AI-related stocks. It’s hard not to get sucked in to the search for gold and lose sight of my investment objectives, which I have never articulated.

It is very worrisome. I had some great stocks that I disposed of, which had high p/e ratios that were rewarded with even higher p/e ratios. But another problem that comes up for consideration is portfolio rebalancing. If you bought Google after the IPO, you would have had an overconcentration problem in fairly short order. Rebalancing would have taken away the enormous profits that would have been made by hanging on to the stock.

I have no answer to this risk mitigation strategy. But eliminating risk would have eliminated making huge profits since that time. I don’t know. Heads you lose, tails I win. If you figure out the answer, please let me know. But being retired makes the risk-taking even more complicated.

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I’m back at looking at the stock markets and individual stocks. I cannot escape finding companies that have P/E ratios in the 30s, which are relatively slow-growth and arguably have limited prospects. In many cases, these stocks are promoted by billionaire investors who are attempting to inflate their stock prices. This used to be illegal, but now it’s an everyday occurrence.

Valero (VLO): Michael Burry, of “Big Short” fame, revealed this week that he’s owned Valero since 2020. He argues that Gulf Coast refineries are “purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude” and would eventually “produce better margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel.”

Valero operates 15 refineries that can process 3.2 million barrels per day of the heavy, sour crude Venezuela produces.”

I guess his ownership of Valero was kept quiet until now. I don’t know about you, but this stinks.

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Yesterday was another day of fresh highs on the Dow. I continue to be fearful about valuations, but I seem to be howling at the moon. My review of individual stocks continues to reveal inflated valuations that seem to bear no relationship to reality. And now, everywhere I look, recommendations on AI-related stocks seem to be more sanguine than in the past. The problem that I have is that I am not in a position to take open-ended risks, as I live on a fixed income with monies going out and only dividends and interest coming in.

The trick would be to find a surrogate stock for AI or semiconductors. One such stock is 5NPlus. 5N Plus (VNP) produces ultra-pure specialty semiconductors and performance materials, using proprietary techniques to refine metals like bismuth, tellurium, and indium, serving critical industries such as solar energy (like Cadmium Telluride for First Solar), medical imaging (X-ray detectors), security, and pharmaceuticals. The company transforms mining waste into high-purity elements, enabling advanced technology and sustainable solutions in various high-tech sectors.

The stock trades at a reasonable valuation (relatively speaking, of course), with good growth potential and a business model that is not entirely reliant on AI. It’s had a good run, but nothing crazy.

The question that always remains in my mind is whether I’m overthinking things. No one can control the outcomes of their investment decisions. I can only hope to do the best that I can and manage expectations that I can execute things perfectly.

Relying on financial statements and all of the quantitative analysis seems to have less impact on investment success than simply picking solidly managed companies that you invest in for the long term.

I continued after many years of being a stock market investor, selling when people panic and buying into euphoria. Now in my seventies, I still make the same mistake. I just can’t seem to learn.

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It’s already January 5th. We are now already into the New Year, but we only have one trading day behind us. I continue to search for suitable investment candidates that meet my stringent but undocumented investment requirements. Over the years of investing, I have failed to establish a clear and concise investment plan. This resulted in my investment decisions being somewhat random.

Eliminating greed and second-guessing from investment decisions requires a structured, disciplined approach that focuses on a long-term plan rather than short-term emotional reactions. By understanding the inherent psychological biases, you can create systems to mitigate their impact.

One issue that pops up all the time is my ability to manage my emotions. Much has been written on the topic, but little has found its way to print.

Strategies to Manage Emotions
• Develop a Written Investment Plan: Before investing, outline your specific financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. This serves as an anchor during volatile periods. When emotions run high, refer back to this objective document to ensure your actions remain aligned with your long-term strategy.
• Focus on the Long Term: Acknowledge that short-term market fluctuations are inevitable. A long-term perspective helps you avoid impulsive reactions to daily news cycles, which are often designed to evoke fear or greed.
• Diversify Your Portfolio: Spread your investments across various asset classes and sectors to manage risk. Diversification can cushion the impact of market downturns and reduce the intensity of fear or the desire to chase a single “hot” stock out of greed.
• Use a Rules-Based System (e.g., Rebalancing): Regularly review and rebalance your portfolio to maintain your target asset allocation. This provides a structured, automated way to make adjustments without emotional input, such as selling assets that have performed very well (curbing greed) and buying those that are underperforming (countering fear).
• Implement Stop-Loss Orders/Position Limits: For those who struggle with selling losers, using pre-defined stop-loss points can help convert temporary losses into smaller, permanent losses, protecting capital and removing the agonizing decision-making process in the moment.
• Practice “Average In, Average Out”: Instead of trying to perfectly time the market, invest a fixed portion of your intended position at set intervals (dollar-cost averaging). This removes the pressure of “second-guessing” the exact right moment to buy or sell.
• Limit Exposure to Market Noise: Turn off financial news and avoid social media groups that promote sensationalized or biased content. Constant exposure to market commentary can heighten emotions and lead to irrational decision-making.
• Maintain an Investment Journal: Document your trades and, importantly, your feelings at the time of each trade. Reviewing this journal later can expose emotional patterns that need adjustment, building self-awareness.
• Seek Professional Advice: An experienced, objective financial advisor can provide valuable guidance, help you stay on track with your plan, and offer an unemotional perspective during times of market volatility.

These are rules that are fairly easy to set out, and not so easy to implement. One part of this that I would find particularly useful is in the Investment Journal. This would document trades. I have no idea which are my losers and winners, as my online platform provides little in the way of detail (historical) on trades. Yes, use paper, not a spreadsheet. Spreadsheets are, but paper is better.

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On Monday, January 5th, the stocks that I follow continue to stay strong. I find that buying opportunities, namely what I believe are reasonably priced stocks, are limited. I have yet to articulate a set of decision-making rules to purchase stocks. I’m also having difficulty reducing my performers, which have done so well for the last decade. The is emotion defying logic, and one would think that it is something to squeeze out of the decision-making process. Not so easy.

I have come across an intriguing company that I bumped into before, but I didn’t follow up on. Ferrari (RACE). More on that latter.

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On December 31st, markets exhibited some anxiety regarding AI stocks. Everywhere you go, you hear AI. It;s really getting very tiresome. Almost to the point that you have to believe that we are in a bubble. Most of the market gurus say we are not. Reason to be concerned. You can look at all the usual market indicators, but it’s not a substitute for intuition. Ultimately, one needs to go with one’s gut feeling and stand tall in the face of the herd. But it’s not easy by any means.