Tag: investing philosophy

Jake · Apr 10, 2026 7:43 am

I have been using AI frequently in trying to determine an investment strategy. Quite often, I get results that are contradictory and sometimes completely wrong. If you even start to dig a little, you find that much of the information that is generated is at best unreliable. Look carefully as to where the information is coming from. You’ll see the sources footnoted in much of the AI narrative.

What I have noticed is that even for financial-related matters, AI is drawing the information from Reddit and Wikipedia. Now I don’t know about you, but these are highly unreliable sources of financial information drawn from people who are just writing with little or no knowledge of accounting, tax or financial management. In my opinion, the whole thing is getting seriously dumbed down.

“Costco (COST) stock is generally considered a high-quality, long-term hold, but its premium valuation (P/E over 50) makes it expensive to buy at current, near-record high levels. While analysts have a moderate buy consensus with a $1,185 target, new investors may want to wait for a price pullback.

Key Considerations for Costco Stock:


Strong Performance: Costco has high membership renewal rates and a durable, consumer-defensive model.


High Valuation: Trading at a P/E ratio over 50, it is expensive relative to the S&P 500 and peers such as Walmart.

Growth Outlook: While dependable, growth is moderate rather than explosive, leading some to recommend holding rather than aggressive buying.

Analyst Outlook: Analysts generally consider it a “Moderate Buy”, with a recent BofA target of $1,185.Existing shareholders often hold for the long term, while new investors are advised to seek better entry points.

Further Exploration: Analyze the 5-year return comparison to see how Costco has historically outperformed the S&P 500. Review the latest Q1 earnings analysis to understand current operational performance and key risks. Examine a bearish valuation argument focusing on the stock’s high P/E ratio compared to its growth.”

This information is being drawn not from analysis by major US investment firms or analysts, but from the Motley Fool. This is the primary source of the information. So I am being fed the Motley Fool by using this hyped up search engine to transcribe the information.

I don’t know how to deal with this. What’s happened is that I have gone from rigorous analysis to relying on a search engine to scan through unreliable, unprofessional investment newsletter platforms. A truly scary thought. But markets are now dominated by emotion and trading tactics over the medium term rather than real fundamentals.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments
Jake · Apr 9, 2026 8:59 pm

Stock markets were stable to up today, trying to digest the news from the Middle East. It’s my opinion that we are facing many years of instability in the Middle East and elsewhere. The United States has failed to play to win again, even with Trump at the helm.

I don’t care about the politics, but the current reality on the ground shakes my fundamental belief in the US economy. What we see in the news is a lot of “micro” reporting, very little in the way of looking at the long game and how this is going to play out over the years to come.

I cannot imagine what the Taiwanese are thinking right now, how all this will play out for them vis-à-vis the Chinese. I don’t think it looks good. If one were to incorporate this kind of thinking into their investments, how would one adjust one’s portfolio to this “new reality”?

To find a defensive strategy here for someone in my position (74 years old and looking at not so many years to go), there aren’t a lot of good options. Stocks, perhaps. And then I add in my uncertainty around the US Estate Tax if I’m outside of Canada, and my investment options become even more restricted. There is always the option of simply putting my cash into short-term vehicles like treasury bills and treasury bonds. The Investment professionals seem to feel that it is folly.

Not that they offer any viable alternatives. What I do believe is that investors probably don’t rigorously try to determine what their financial needs will be in the future. If you save for retirement, should you not get to a point where you have a target rate of return? Do I need 10% compunded every year to live? This requires some thorough analysis and an honest look at how you can live given what you have got. It’s a simple spreadsheet that most can do with little effort. Analyzing what comes in versus what goes out. Building in a rate of return and your taxes, and voila! Be honest with yourself while looking at what you have versus what you need. Make your lifestyle fit your cash flow.

As I get older, I find I need less, want less and can easily spend less. I don’t have the energy or desire to travel. I don’t spend much as I don’t go out much. I’m too exhausted.

Get real. Have a reasonable plan and move forward.

close up shot of a yellow alarm clock on a purple surface
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#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 8, 2026 7:34 am

Stock markets look to open very strongly today after the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran. It looks like it will be quite a positive day for the markets. In my opinion, nothing has been resolved with Iran, and it’s difficult to know where markets will go.

In terms of long-term strategy, my question is: what has all this accomplished, and is it just a break in the action? I don’t know. But I have several objectives to achieve that have been imposed on me as a result of my attempt to emigrate from Canada. None of which I have dealt with because of the stickiness of taking long-term decisions with what I believe to be incomplete information.

I continue to resist creating an investment policy statement to guide me through this. And I am suffering severe indecisiveness.

#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 7, 2026 8:53 am

Markets opened yesterday with a pretty much wait-and-see attitude to the goings on in the Middle East. For the time being, the markets seem to have shrugged off the increase in oil prices. The IMF has issued a warning about inflation and slowing global economic growth. I never see anyone back-check these guys to see if any of their forecasts ever pan out. I won’t bother doing so as it’s a waste of time.

I continue to struggle with implementing a plan for my portfolio to allow me to emigrate from Canada. I hit one roadblock after another. I ran into an issue with U.S. estate taxes. Yes, US estate taxes. It seems that whatever you do, there is some US rule or regulation that can affect you, no matter where you live. I fail to understand how this is possible, but most countries have given in to the extra-territorial application of US law. Something countries used to resist in the past, but here we are.

“Canadians with US situs assets (real estate, US stocks) exceeding USD$60,000 and a worldwide estate over USD$15M (2026) may face U.S. estate taxes. Scotia Wealth Management notes that while treaty exemptions offer relief, Filing Form 706-NA is required if U.S. assets exceed $60K. Proper planning is vital due to graduated rates up to 40%.”

My understanding is that to claim the exemption under the US-Canada Tax Treaty, you need to file the form. I don’t give tax advice, but I will check out what the implications are for me. Yet another thing to wreck your retirement planning that no one tells you about. Especially for those Canadians who would like to emigrate. It never stops. As long as I have an RRSP or RRIF, I will be unsure about everything and anything, it seems. With a never-ending host of issues/problems to address.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment strategy#leaving Canada#portfolio strategy
Jake · Apr 2, 2026 4:25 pm

Stock markets today were all over the place. I have been refraining from selling to raise cash to restructure my portfolio. It’s a little hard to time it perfectly. I should probably sell into the strong days, but I didn’t pull the trigger today. And a three-day weekend is a long time with what’s going on in the Middle East. Again, lack of strategy. I want to restructure, but I don’t have a plan. It’s always the same story: think, plan, do.

#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 26, 2026 5:39 pm

The last couple of days have been a bit of up and down, and sideways. Tech stocks have gotten hit. Names such as Meta and Google have seen erosion in their stock prices. I noticed a rather steep decline in the Taiwan Semiconductor share price. Not surprising, so. I am going to do a post on Investment Advisors and their various responsibility to their clients, or the lack thereof.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment strategy#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 24, 2026 8:57 am

Yesterday’s stock market bounce may very well be a “dead cat” bounce. In other words, just a pause in the action. The market today looks a little bit soft, but it was nice to see some return to a level of optimism. Perhaps this was misplaced, but that’s the way the market operates.

The point I would like to raise is how this affected my behaviour. What I mean is this. I went from pessimism (woe is me, why didn’t I buy the index and some safer ETFs) to why can’t I buy more stocks or gold. It’s the same old story, trying to time the market.

This kind of behaviour is a type of mental “whiplash”. It shows a lack of conviction in my principles, which are poorly defined. Again, this leads back to a well-developed Investment Policy Statement. Always back to first principles. And getting away from that in whatever I do is dangerous.

The Investment Policy Statement is the basic document that will allow me to keep my focus and avoid bouncing all over the place. Today, I will spend the day developing, refining, and concluding it.

#behavioural finance#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 22, 2026 8:22 am

The Canadian stock market has had a pretty good two years after being “dead money.” It was a very poor investment for a couple of decades. But, in my opinion, this has been driven by the financial sector, a paper shuffle. And then there is the real estate sector. Another paper shuffle. But you need to dig a little deeper.

As of early 2026, the financial sector, dominated by Canada’s “Big Six” banks, accounts for approximately 33%-33.2% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index’s market capitalization.

Bank Domination: The “Big Five” (RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC), along with National Bank, command 86.3% of the Canadian banking sector’s market share, making them the primary drivers of this percentage.

Key Data Points for 2026:

Top Constituents: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) consistently rank as the top two largest companies by market cap on the entire TSX.

While the financial sector is the largest, it is closely followed by energy and materials, with banks serving as the primary anchor for the Canadian market’s high concentration in financials

Services, including the massive real estate sector, constitute over 70% of Canada’s GDP. Real estate, rental, and leasing specifically represents a major portion, often cited at around 13% to 14% of the national GDP, acting as the largest single industrial contributor to the Canadian economy.

Key Details Regarding the Services and Real Estate Sector:

Total Services Sector: The broader services sector, which includes professional services, healthcare, finance, and real estate, accounts for roughly 70% of GDP.

Real Estate Focus: The “real estate, rental, and leasing” industry is the largest contributor to Canada’s GDP, accounting for 13.2%.

Provincial Dependence: Some provinces are highly reliant on real estate, with British Columbia experiencing up to 1 in 5 GDP dollars (19.6%) generated by the sector.

Broad Definition: The real estate sector’s high percentage includes the “imputed” rent of owner-occupied homes, not just commissions and leasing fees.

Underground Activity: Real estate and related financial services are also key players in the underground economy, representing 15.3% of that activity.

This is indicative of the fact that Canada has no real economy. If you add in a few tech companies and a couple of pipelines, there’s not much out there for a long-term investor. And then there is the real estate sector, which adds no real wealth; it’s just playing with yourself to create fake value.

This would also explain the growing income inequality and the loss of productivity (failure to invest in anything except paper assets). Over the last decade (roughly 2015–2025), Canada has experienced a significant, structural slowdown in business investment in capital assets, leading to a widening productivity gap with the U.S. While non-residential capital stock grew by only 10.9% in real terms over the decade, investment per worker has stagnated or declined, particularly in machinery, equipment, and non-residential structures. 

In my opinion, this is the explanation for the rather anemic performance of the Canadian stock market in decades gone by. It likely does not bode well for the future. What will happen to Canada? I don’t know, but I wish I had acted on this a long-time ago. Poor retirement planning on my part, and not enough due diligence.

Will an investment advisor help here? I’m not sure. There are no easy answers. But can you really rely on someone who has a superficial knowledge of these matters to guide you long-term? To have an understanding of what’s going on in the long-term? I think not. You need to do a lot of due diligence to find someone to be your investment advisor.

#Canadian stock market#investing#investing Canada#investing philosophy#investment strategy#investments
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 7:45 pm

I am currently residing in Canada. I have lived here, except for a few short breaks, for over 65 years. I must say that as the years go by, I become increasingly disillusioned with Canada. I’m not sure what the attraction is for immigrants (other than they can’t get into the United States). Nosebleed prices for everything, incredibly high taxes with a government that is never satisfied with its “take”. It’s never enough.

During the last few years, there have been a lot of winners in the stock market, AI, and metals. The manufacturing sector is nonexistent. Governments have stifled the growth of the natural resource sector. Canadians are pretty much asleep, living off I don’t know what.

One of the main drivers of the Canadian economy is the real estate sector. Now that’s in crisis, and there is not much else out there. Maybe some tech will save the country, but ride a subway in Toronto at 2 PM in the afternoon and you will see the Canadian work ethic.

Today, Canadian stock markets took a huge dive. You would think that a resource-rich country like Canada would benefit from the turmoil in the Middle East. No. A more massive drop than New York.

Canadian stock market returns look good over the last five years. It’s because of the last couple of years. For decades, Canada was dead money. I believe that inevitably it will revert to that.

There are some good utility stocks, pipelines and maybe some tech. The rest is a real stinker. Look before you leap, and if you’re outside Canada, remember the currency risk that you are taking on board. Canada has not been a great place to put your money.

#investing#investing in Canada#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 11:24 am

Stock markets opened with a whimper today. It appears that markets are still feeling the pressure of the Middle East conflict. Gold prices continue to fall. I suspect there was a lot of profit-taking going on after the pretty fast run-up in the price. It would seem that gold continues to have a place in long-term portfolios, but no one is talking about gold now. Buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying if you are interested in accumulating a position.

Gold shows you how volatile things can get. It dropped $1,000 an ounce in a pretty short period of time. There are no safe havens anymore, just pain or less pain.

Once again, I am displaying a trading mentality. Looking for the short-term profits. But I must always remind myself that I have maybe 10-15 years left to go. I cannot withstand long-term drawdown periods. So, keeping that in mind would seem to indicate that gold does not fit.

Long-term Canadian stocks worry me, so I look to utilities that have stable revenues and growing dividends.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 20, 2026 7:48 am

As a general matter, building your wealth requires vigilance. Even when you get the assistance of a financial advisor, you need to keep an eye on what’s going on. Relying totally on someone else to manage your wealth is, one might say, a little risky.

I paid lip service to creating an investment policy statement. It seems unnecessary. It’s not. It provides an overall framework for your future investments. It prompts you to consider where you will allocate your money and how your investment goals will change over time. It’s a mistake not to take it seriously, as I did.

There are many online resources available for crafting an investment policy statement. Do it! Don’t consider it as another unnecessary step. Don’t outsource this as well. Make sure it gets done, and that you are the originator of the document, not just filling in the blanks.

This is a short post. But I cannot overemphasize how important it is to go through the process, even if you are managing your own investments.

hard cash on a briefcase
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#investing#investing philosophy#investment policy statements#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 19, 2026 5:10 pm

The markets closed today without doing any more significant damage to my money. I’m not sure whether the buying has come back, but for now it seems to have settled down, waiting presumably for some news from the Middle East. Canadian oil and gas stocks moved up in what is likely a dead cat bounce. I don’t believe that Trump is in a very strong position to allow long-term damage to the global oil supply with the mid-term elections coming up.

I get the feeling that this war with Iran will be yet another episode of unfinished business. This in turn, will inevitably bring more volatility to the markets in days and maybe years to come.

Canadian stock markets were down today, except for oil and gas. Canada is, in my opinion, a mess. And the outsized gains over the last two years have been the result of an upswing in base and precious metals. This was driven by the crazy AI stuff, which seems to have suddenly disappeared! No one is talking AI!

In closing off for today, there are a couple of points that I need to get into my head. As a 74-year-old man, I need to concern myself with capital preservation. I need to get the volatility out of my portfolio!

#AI stocks#investing#investing philosophy#investment accounts Canada#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Mar 19, 2026 10:58 am

The markets opened weak again today. The excuse or rationale was short-term oil prices. Yet again, the short-term and program traders are in action, tanking the market. It has now become the wild west. For simple investors such as myself, it’s difficult to distance ourselves from the noise. There is so much material on the internet, much of which is disinformation or misinformation. Unfortunately, it seems that everyone is an expert now, as they have a megaphone readily available to them. I just don’t understand how they all manage to support themselves. The most important thing to do in times of market turmoil is to turn it off.

The sad reality is that the action in the Middle East will not come to any decisive conclusion. And we will all have to live with the ambiguity that it creates. There will, in my opinion, be no short-term pain for long-term gain. It will just continue to be like a dull toothache.

As for me, when the dust settles, I will look to take the volatility out of my portfolio. I don’t like these 20% drops in stock prices in a two month period. I don’t know what’s going on in the background, but things seem to be wildly out of control. Time to reflect on my investment objectives and realign myself to face the reeality of my mortality. Hope is not a strategy.

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#portfolio strategy
Jake · Jan 26, 2026 3:00 pm

Looking at some of my investments, one issue came up. I noticed that stocks like Mastercard, Microsoft and others are all between 15 and 20 per cent off their highs for the last twelve months, as the S&P 500 and the Dow attain new all-time highs. I’m not sure what’s going on, but it seems some large-cap stocks are driving the market while others are left behind. Probably the usual suspects, like Alphabet and Nvidia, to name a couple.

This is disturbing when investing new money in the market. Obviously, the market has rotated out of the past leadership, not that this is news to anyone but me. But if you are looking to invest, it may be flashing some danger signals in this divergence between the “old” stocks and the “new stocks.”

I’m not advocating that anyone try to time the market. I have, however, been looking at swapping out my individual stocks for ETFs. And it makes me nervous, given my age and where I am in overall market strategy.

Bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered is the old saying. But right now it’s a bit tricky for me to make a decision on what to buy and what to avoid. It’s the same old story; most of us, I believe, are “pigs” when it comes to stock markets. I feel like I’ve been slaughtered a few times!

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy
Jake · Jan 16, 2026 8:35 pm

I’m listening to a podcast called the Loonie Hour. The current episode discusses Venezuela and the rationale for US activities there. It’s interesting. But at the end of the podcast, they rant about the future of Canada and the role it can play. None of these guys plays the long game. It’s all about the short-term impacts of events on the markets. The reason I am mentioning this is how it relates to personal financial planning.

You would think that Canada is now poised to become a great power because of its vast natural resources. They talk about Venezuela and the billions and the years that it would take to rebuild their oil industry. But they gloss over the fact that the same rationale applies to Canada. Yes, Canada has abundant natural resources. No, Canada does not have the billions needed to develop them. The capital market isn’t big enough, and I don’t believe that the risk appetite is here for these kinds of ventures. Never mind the politics.

These guys seem to be thoughtful. But they are short-term focused and are too young to understand that, in the end, the long game is the important one. Sigh!

#investing#investing philosophy#investment philosophy#investment strategy#investments#portfolio strategy#the Loonie Hour