On December 31st, markets exhibited some anxiety regarding AI stocks. Everywhere you go, you hear AI. It;s really getting very tiresome. Almost to the point that you have to believe that we are in a bubble. Most of the market gurus say we are not. Reason to be concerned. You can look at all the usual market indicators, but it’s not a substitute for intuition. Ultimately, one needs to go with one’s gut feeling and stand tall in the face of the herd. But it’s not easy by any means.
Category: Stuff
I called CIBC Investor’s Edge this morning. I waited almost 40 minutes and then gave up. When the call was picked up, I was told there was a 15-minute wait.
One of the big issues with these self-directed trading platforms in Canada is the absence of customer support. I look at the Investor’s Edge website, and responses to email enquiries need 3 days. 3 days! How can you get anything done? Why do clients who are paying good money for services have these ridiculously long wait times?
The sad reality is that these organizations no longer work for us; we work for them. Long wait times, paperwork, whatever it is, we have to do everything, and they collect the fees. It’s a sad state of affairs.

On Monday, January 5th, the stocks that I follow continue to stay strong. I find that buying opportunities, namely what I believe are reasonably priced stocks, are limited. I have yet to articulate a set of decision-making rules to purchase stocks. I’m also having difficulty reducing my performers, which have done so well for the last decade. The is emotion defying logic, and one would think that it is something to squeeze out of the decision-making process. Not so easy.
I have come across an intriguing company that I bumped into before, but I didn’t follow up on. Ferrari (RACE). More on that latter.
Another aspect of registered savings plans in Canada (RRSPs, RRIFs and others), is their portability. What I am referring to here is what happens to these plans in the case where you might want to retire in a country other than Canada.
I have been researching the subject, and a couple of things have come up. First, it’s very difficult to get a clear answer on what happens when you emigrate from Canada. It seems that policies differ from bank to bank, perhaps to a great extent or maybe with minor differences.
What is clear is that in some cases, you will lose access to your portfolio online. What that means is that you will need to actually call in to do a foreign exchange transaction or move funds from your registered plans to your bank account.
As I mentioned above, your account may be coded sell only. So that means that your portfolio is frozen in time, and you cannot make any adjustments to your portfolio other than a sale. If you want to replace one stock with another, you cannot do so. You can only liquidate into cash. It makes traditional portfolio management impossible.
I did a search using AI on how one might manage a portfolio in this situation. It came up with this:
ETFs are generally a better choice than individual stocks for a portfolio that can only be liquidated and not replenished with new purchases, primarily due to diversification benefits and lower single-stock risk.
Why ETFs are Generally Better
Instant Diversification: An ETF is a basket of many underlying securities (often dozens or hundreds). This structure immediately diversifies your holdings across different companies and potentially sectors, which significantly reduces the impact of a poor performance from any single company within the fund.
Reduced Single-Stock Risk: Individual stocks carry idiosyncratic risk (risk specific to that single company), such as a product failure, a lawsuit, or poor management that could drastically drop the stock price. In a liquidation-only scenario, you can’t buy more shares to average down your cost basis or rebalance if one stock plummets. An ETF mitigates this risk by spreading it out.
Built-in Risk Management: With no ability to make new purchases or rebalance actively, the inherent diversification of an ETF acts as a protective shield against volatility. Your portfolio is more resilient to market shocks.
Liquidity and Trading: Most major ETFs are highly liquid and can be easily sold on exchanges, just like individual stocks, ensuring you can liquidate when needed.
Why Individual Stocks Are Riskier in This Scenario
Concentration Risk: If your portfolio only holds a few individual stocks, the failure of just one company could permanently impair a significant portion of your capital, with no way to recover that loss through future investments.
No Rebalancing Capability: In a normal portfolio, you would sell overperforming assets and buy underperforming ones to maintain your target allocation. A liquidation-only scenario prevents you from buying, making it impossible to rebalance. An ETF, while not rebalanced by you, is managed by the fund manager to track its underlying index or strategy, providing consistent exposure over time.
Conclusion
For a portfolio that cannot make new purchases, the priority shifts to capital preservation and risk mitigation. The diversification and risk-spreading properties of ETFs make them a superior and safer choice for maintaining value until liquidation.”
Seems like pretty good advice. I’m 74, it might just be good advice in general.
My point is that you need to be very careful before emigrating. You don’t want any surprises that you can’t manage. At the same time, I should add that some of the investment dealers will close your cash accounts, period. So if you have a portfolio of stocks in a non-registered account, you will, in some instances, be forced to liquidate them. It will not generate any additional tax because of the Canadian departure tax on emigration. But it will mean you will need to buy back your portfolio in your new country, and there may be impediments to doing so. This is really messy, and you need to be very careful.
Another matter is making sure you have a Power of Attorney in place so that you can have things done for you when you have left the country. In the absence of this, you may be forced to return to Canada to take care of this kind of stuff.
The same applies to your bank accounts. Check and double-check what happens.
One maddening aspect of this is the refusal of any of the banks to put anything in writing. No matter who I spoke to, nothing in writing on this topic. Maddening.
Looking around at common stocks using the old p/e ratio as the valuation metric, things look pretty scary. Most of the growth of large-cap companies has been fueled by an increase in p/e ratios. I have been watching CAT (Caterpillar), the stock for which has doubled in the last twelve months or so. The p/e ratio has more than doubled. This represents the anticipation of growth, not necessarily the actual growth that is taking place.
Much of this is driven by the never-ending thirst for AI and AI-related stocks. It’s hard not to get sucked in to the search for gold and lose sight of my investment objectives, which I have never articulated.
It is very worrisome. I had some great stocks that I disposed of, which had high p/e ratios that were rewarded with even higher p/e ratios. But another problem that comes up for consideration is portfolio rebalancing. If you bought Google after the IPO, you would have had an overconcentration problem in fairly short order. Rebalancing would have taken away the enormous profits that would have been made by hanging on to the stock.
I have no answer to this risk mitigation strategy. But eliminating risk would have eliminated making huge profits since that time. I don’t know. Heads you lose, tails I win. If you figure out the answer, please let me know. But being retired makes the risk-taking even more complicated.
Today I tried to contact CIBC Investor’s Edge at 8:45 AM. I waited for 45 minutes without being “picked up”. This evening I called CIBC Investor’s Edge at 4:57 PM. The estimated wait time was 66 minutes.
To their credit, I wrote to the CEO. Someone responded in about an hour to help. Have I found a home?
Yesterday was another day of fresh highs on the Dow. I continue to be fearful about valuations, but I seem to be howling at the moon. My review of individual stocks continues to reveal inflated valuations that seem to bear no relationship to reality. And now, everywhere I look, recommendations on AI-related stocks seem to be more sanguine than in the past. The problem that I have is that I am not in a position to take open-ended risks, as I live on a fixed income with monies going out and only dividends and interest coming in.
The trick would be to find a surrogate stock for AI or semiconductors. One such stock is 5NPlus. 5N Plus (VNP) produces ultra-pure specialty semiconductors and performance materials, using proprietary techniques to refine metals like bismuth, tellurium, and indium, serving critical industries such as solar energy (like Cadmium Telluride for First Solar), medical imaging (X-ray detectors), security, and pharmaceuticals. The company transforms mining waste into high-purity elements, enabling advanced technology and sustainable solutions in various high-tech sectors.
The stock trades at a reasonable valuation (relatively speaking, of course), with good growth potential and a business model that is not entirely reliant on AI. It’s had a good run, but nothing crazy.
The question that always remains in my mind is whether I’m overthinking things. No one can control the outcomes of their investment decisions. I can only hope to do the best that I can and manage expectations that I can execute things perfectly.
Relying on financial statements and all of the quantitative analysis seems to have less impact on investment success than simply picking solidly managed companies that you invest in for the long term.
I continued after many years of being a stock market investor, selling when people panic and buying into euphoria. Now in my seventies, I still make the same mistake. I just can’t seem to learn.
I’m back at looking at the stock markets and individual stocks. I cannot escape finding companies that have P/E ratios in the 30s, which are relatively slow-growth and arguably have limited prospects. In many cases, these stocks are promoted by billionaire investors who are attempting to inflate their stock prices. This used to be illegal, but now it’s an everyday occurrence.
“Valero (VLO): Michael Burry, of “Big Short” fame, revealed this week that he’s owned Valero since 2020. He argues that Gulf Coast refineries are “purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude” and would eventually “produce better margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel.”
Valero operates 15 refineries that can process 3.2 million barrels per day of the heavy, sour crude Venezuela produces.”
I guess his ownership of Valero was kept quiet until now. I don’t know about you, but this stinks.
It’s important to give Power of Attorney (“POA”) over your accounts to somebody. You can do a search on the internet for what a POA is and what it does. Every legal jurisdiction is different. The real challenge is getting someone at your bank or investment dealer to have it put in place. My goodness! What a challenge! You will need to be patient to get this done, and sometimes you’ll get some pushback from the bank on the POA (they want their own form, this or that or some other complication that you would never think of).
Sometimes the bank employees are poorly trained and haven’t a clue. Do nothing by phone. Go in person to the bank, and if you can’t get it done, go to a bigger branch if you can. It’s hard to understand why this is so difficult to do.
Rememeber, assume that there will be delays and that getting it done will not be straightforward.
I am considering changing financial institutions for my RRIF and LIF. This has become an incredibly challenging and time-consuming process. Issues keep popping up everywhere I turn. One such issue is the payments made from your RRIF or LIF when you move your account. If you move your account, the remaining RRIF or LIF payments will have to be made for the current taxation year.
In other words, say you moved your RRIF in January after your first payment. When the account is transferred, the payment will be for the remaining eleven months of the year. One lump sum.
Example: Move RRIF January 15, 2026
Payment Date: The 10th of the month
Payments made monthly for 2026: $5,000
One final payment is to be made before transfer: 11 * $5,000 = $66,000
Depending on how you manage your portfolio, this may be easy or hard to fund.
Just another thing to think about. You must plan your RRIF or LIF account transfers for the end of the year to avoid this situation.
You will need to fund a payment of $11,000, and the RRIF payments will recommence on January 10, 2027, if that’s your payment date.
Why did I ever start up with this all those years ago and have these shackles on my legs every time I try to do something?

Semiconductor stocks continue to rally. There seems to be no top to it. I’m thinking of switching from individual stocks to ETFs. It’s become too hard to look for individual stocks in the current environment, and I’ve missed the boat on most stuff that blossomed over the last few years.
I owned Taiwan Semiconductor in 2023. I was talking with a Tech Analyst who said that it faced a lot of headwinds in the summer of 2023. Told me it was a sale at $100.
I sold it after listening to this clown. Sometimes, the more people know, the less they know. There was a chip shortage at the time, but this dimwhit hadn’t a clue.
I have found that it’s not always the case that low p/e stocks are value traps. I sold too early on a lot of stocks like Celestica, HSBC, IBM, just to name a few. I won on Caterpillar, but not enough to compensate. It requires a lot of digging, but now I’m coming up with nothing.
I picked up a Japanese financial stock, MUFG. The P/E ratio has doubled since I purchased it. There is no fun in that. Just more risk and no upside, in my opinion, for a long time.
The moral of this story? There are times when there just are no good stocks to buy. Sometimes, with fresh cash, just wait if you can. No one ever lost money holding cash. Don’t listen to the blah, blah, blah about opportunity cost.
Sometimes it’s hard to give up old habits. I’ve tried my hand at stockpicking for a long time. What I did not learn is that you should sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling. In April 2025, I should have been loading up. Instead, I was selling. The corollary of that is now I should be lightening up, but for many reasons, I can’t be out of the market. So as I mentioned before, looking at ETFs. For the most part, the ones I’m looking at did a lot better over the last few years than I did.
I didn’t trust my instincts. Sold too early into falling markets. Didn’t learn a darn thing in 50 years.

I’m listening to a podcast called the Loonie Hour. The current episode discusses Venezuela and the rationale for US activities there. It’s interesting. But at the end of the podcast, they rant about the future of Canada and the role it can play. None of these guys plays the long game. It’s all about the short-term impacts of events on the markets. The reason I am mentioning this is how it relates to personal financial planning.
You would think that Canada is now poised to become a great power because of its vast natural resources. They talk about Venezuela and the billions and the years that it would take to rebuild their oil industry. But they gloss over the fact that the same rationale applies to Canada. Yes, Canada has abundant natural resources. No, Canada does not have the billions needed to develop them. The capital market isn’t big enough, and I don’t believe that the risk appetite is here for these kinds of ventures. Never mind the politics.
These guys seem to be thoughtful. But they are short-term focused and are too young to understand that, in the end, the long game is the important one. Sigh!
Over the years, I didn’t notice that, notwithstanding my instructions, dividends were not reinvested. One thing I didn’t take note of was the failure of my online broker to execute my instructions. I should have checked and double-checked, but I didn’t.
Online brokers, in my opinion, are sloppy. The people answering the phone are poorly trained and often cannot handle technical matters. Sometimes, if I call a few times asking the same question, I get three different answers. The other maddening part of all this is the refusal to put things in writing. It’s clear to me what the reason is, but I’m not going there.
Be careful. Take notes. Note the time. Double-check everything they tell you. Double-check that instructions have been followed. Take nothing for granted and assume that if something goes wrong, they will take no responsibility for it.

With the continuing enthusiasm for AI, I am reminded of a policy that a bank I used to work with had regarding new projects. We used to call them “build it, and they will come.” The bank would never finance these projects without substantial guarantees. The forecasts were always overly optimistic. We have that now. No doubt. The question is ultimately one of whether or not they will come. If they don’t come, this entire structure will tank big time.

Markets continue to be all over the place. I’m not sure whether it’s all the geopolitical stuff going on out there that is messing it up. I had another look at some of my stocks, which are trading well below their twelve-month highs. I am shocked that the Dow and the Nasdaq keep hitting new highs while my portfolio continues to decline in value. What the heck is going on? You can talk about market leadership, but will it ever rotate back to traditional industries? I can’t see that happening in the near future. So does that mean the whole concept of a diversified portfolio of individual stocks is down the tubes? I don’t know the answer.
I don’t know about you, but this is very troubling, particularly for those who run their own investment portfolios and trade individual stocks. But the “old” names don’t seem to work anymore. But for how long?